朱文昊的中文博客--专注技术,向往自由
朱文昊 Albert Zhu
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朱文昊 Albert Zhu
中国决策者的政策子弹所剩无几
2010年06月29日
BEN SIMPFENDORFER
朱文昊 按:原文转自华尔街日报网站:
http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100629/opn075927.asp
过去两年,中国经济像是一道灿烂的光芒,如果没有它,世界经济的前景将变得晦暗不明。在出口走弱的情况下,很大程度上依靠政府的刺激措施,这个国家得以维持了一种不错的增长率。这似乎说明,它可以不受其他地区的大势影响。但在目前,美国的消费仍然停滞不前,欧盟(European Union)也面临着一连串的主权债务危机,在这种环境下,分析师们对中国的增长轨迹再次感到怀疑,而且怀疑得不无道理:虽然前面的刺激措施取得了成功,但北京手中的良方正变得越来越少。
中央政府再也不能够承受人为地提振需求,同时又避免国内经济出现危险的失衡。2009年1月至12月注入价值9.6万亿元(合1.4万亿美元)的新增贷款,已经在房地产市场吹起泡沫,并在大型国有银行和规模更小的银行积累了不良资产。据官方估计,仅向财务不佳的地方投资公司发放的贷款,目前就已经达到了六万亿元,但这有可能存在低估。
为应对这些问题,近期有关部门对浪费性的公共基础设施和住房投资实施了限制,但针对后者需要进行谨慎的权衡。房地产投资刺激了建筑业,也刺激了钢铁、水泥、家具和家电等相关行业。即使房地产市场的投机需求只有两成,倘若房价下跌,投机客突然撤离,那么市场将会出现一个巨大的空洞。这样一种结果,将给很多行业带来沉重的连锁打击。
中国同样不能依赖外界来提振增长。上个月的出口数据无疑是强劲的,但世界对中国出口商品的需求不会回到危机前的高水平。近几个季度美国经济增长走强,但有可能再次走软,并将背负更加沉重的税收和监管负担。欧盟国家也面临着沉重的债务负担和社会动荡。而如果中国国内经济陷入泥潭,国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)等机构是没法出手提供缓冲的,它们没有那么大的实力。
即使中国经济放缓,通货膨胀水平仍将高企。去年的刺激措施造成流动性过剩,引起了通胀压力。政策制定者基本上维持利率不变,而关注于提高存款准备金率等其他形式的监管紧缩,这又进一步加剧了通胀风险。整个经济体在土地、年轻劳动力和原材料方面面临着越来越严重的结构性短缺。这样来看,中文媒体中“滞胀”一词用得越来越多,也就不足为奇。
政策制定者可用于处理这些问题的选择正越来越少。要是在上一轮刺激过后马上再来新一轮刺激,则有可能导致不良债务以更快的速度增加,让人不安地想起世界其他地方发生的事情,同时也只会进一步加剧通胀压力。如果不把增长引擎从出口转变为国内消费的提高,中国的增长就仍然很容易受到外部因素的影响。这种转变正在进行,但进展缓慢。
刺破房地产市场泡沫亦无良方可言。北京曾试图紧缩信贷、进一步限制二套房和三套房的持有,但近期措施没有触及房地产泡沫的基本成因:储蓄率居高不下,严格的资本管制导致资金囿于国内,房地产之外的其他投资选项十分有限。直到政策制定者在这些方面做出艰难的政策选择,他们才不至于在投机和过热面前显得被动。
在通胀方面,最大的危险是央行行动过迟。农业收成高延缓了居民消费价格水平的上升速度,但目前的扩张正造成包括工资和贱金属在内的各种非食品价格大幅上涨。如果央行不尽快加息,这最终无疑会渗入经济体的其他部门。另外,干旱等自然灾害这种非眼前的风险始终是存在的,如果发生,通胀预期会出现很大程度的恶化。
在全球危机过后不久,人们一般认为,北京找到办法让中国避开了危机的最严重阶段。但中国看起来难以驾驭的问题越来越多,说明政策制定者只是延缓了清算日的到来,但终究不能逃脱。他们以创纪录的速度把资金注入经济体,造成了一系列新的问题,如果不做出一些艰难的决定,这些问题将难以得到纠正。最最艰难的决定尚待做出。
作者贝哲民(Ben Simpfendorfer)为苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)首席中国经济学家,《新丝绸之路》(The New Silk Road)(Palgrave Macmillan出版,2009年)作者。
China Becomes Major Tech Player
2010年06月29日
Quality labor force, universities credited for boom
By Peggy Albright
朱文昊按:本文转自
http://www.computer.org/portal/web/buildyourcareer/HS17
需要指出的是,虽然通篇充满溢美之词,但是文章最后一段作者透露出来的弦外之音,还是发人深思。建立一个有良好秩序和信用的商业体系,才是可持续发展的基础。希望随着时代进步,越来越多的中国IT从业者们不以IT民工自居,而能像美国工程师那样自豪的称自己为Professional。不论China是不是真的这么强大,我们大部分的业内人士如果不能体面、自豪地活着,那么只能说这个业界,整体还是很失败的。
Nobody questions that China is the center of the world when it comes to manufacturing. But in the last few decades, as it’s opened its economy and participated in global markets, China has also sought to become a center of high-tech innovation. It’s already proven itself a major tech player and formidable competitor. For those pursuing IT and software careers in the country, there’s a lot to be excited about.
“China is emerging as a technology power, and what comes with that is opportunity. For us, it is like a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be a part of it,” said Hong-Jiang Zhang, managing director of Microsoft Advanced Technology Center, chief technology officer for Microsoft Asia-Pacific Research and Development Group, and one of 10 distinguished scientists at Microsoft.
Unmatched potential
A talent base that Zhang says is on par with the US and India is one reason for the excitement about China’s technology development. Each year, a quarter-million college students graduate in China with IT degrees. Furthermore, as domestic businesses grow and multinationals like Microsoft expand operations, Zhang said many Chinese professionals who pursued education and career opportunities elsewhere are returning to help “make a difference.
China’s broad market reach is an even bigger draw. The country has 800 million mobile subscribers and 298 million Internet users, more than any other country. And it’s working hard to develop its telecommunications infrastructure, partnering with foreign firms to help expand its telecommunications networks and as restructure its domestic telecommunications industry to consolidate its previous six operators into three: China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom.
The country is regionally diverse, and its provinces and cities have distinct personalities that influence migration patterns, transportation and communications infrastructure, and the types of businesses and industries they can support. The market diversity, broad reach, and scale create sizeable and varied IT, Web and mobile services opportunities.
更多 >
IEEE P802.16m标准即将结束投票
2010年06月29日
关于P802.16m标准
标题: IEEE本地和城域网标准 – 第16部分: 固定和移动宽带无线接入系统的空接口 – 修正案: 高级空接口
Title: IEEE Standard for Local and Metropolitan Area Networks – Part 16: Air Interface for Fixed and Mobile Broadband Wireless Access Systems – Amendment: Advanced Air Interface
Scope: This standard amends the IEEE 802.16 WirelessMAN-OFDMA specification to provide an advanced air interface for operation in licensed bands. It meets the cellular layer requirements of IMT-Advanced next generation mobile networks. This amendment provides continuing support for legacy WirelessMAN-OFDMA equipment.
Purpose: The purpose of this standard is to provide performance improvements necessary to support future advanced services and applications, such as those described by the ITU in Report ITU-R M.2072.
该项投票2010年7月9日结束.
有需要该标准文本或那个ITU2072报告的同行可以联系我.
IEEE P1547.8 标准提升智能电网性能
2010年06月29日
Draft standard provides common technical platform, addresses emerging energy storage challenges in distributed
power generation, Smart Grid industries
IEEE, the world’s leading professional association for the advancement of technology today announced IEEE P1547.8,
a draft standard establishing a common technical platform for distributed resources interconnection applications. The
proposed standard expands upon IEEE 1547, while incorporating industry and National Institute of Standards and
Technology (NIST) recommendations for improved interconnection performance functionality. It also addresses energy
storage challenges coming into play across the distributed resources and Smart Grid industries. Ratification of IEEE P1547.8,
which is sponsored by the IEEE Standards Coordinating Committee 21 (SCC21), is targeted for calendar year 2012.
As a complement to the IEEE 1547 standard, IEEE P1547.8 establishes a common technical platform to address functionality
for the interconnection of distributed resources across the power grid. The standard provides greater support for intermittent
renewable energy sources, and more flexible use of inverters such as found in home solar power systems, enabling easier
and more robust connections to the grid. It also addresses energy storage devices, hybrid generation-storage systems
(ES-DER), and ES-DER aspects of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV), as well as taking into account a variety of industry-driven
recommendations. IEEE P1547.8 is targeted to distributed resource owners, interconnection contractors, equipment
manufacturers, system integrators, area electric power system owners, planners and operators, and regulatory agencies.
In August 2009, NIST established an initial set of priority actions plans (PAPs) for developing standards necessary to build
an interoperable Smart Grid. IEEE P1547.8 will support NIST PAP07 Energy Storage Interconnection Guidelines.
IEEE has more than 100 standards and standards in development relevant to smart grid, including the over 20 IEEE standards
named in the NIST Framework and Roadmap for Smart Grid Interoperability Standards.
For more information on IEEE P1547.8, please visit http://ieeestandards.org/ct.html?rtr=on&s=8nv,1e16q,2xny,kijn,m7pr,gxzm,3xa8
For more information about IEEE’s leadership role in Smart Grid technology development, please visit the IEEE Smart Grid
Web Portal at http://ieeestandards.org/ct.html?rtr=on&s=8nv,1e16q,2xny,c8zn,5dek,gxzm,3xa8
To view the complete article, please visit: http://standards.ieee.org/announcements/2010/P15478.html
我的BOINC排名进入前50%!
2010年06月29日
感谢我的爱人贡献出她的Dell Studio XPS8100的绝大部分CPU时间.
在我的Credits中,除了这台Dell Desktop,贡献最大的就是位于LA,CA的本站服务器了.可惜的是服务器没有GPU.
现在我的BOINC贡献全球排名(Rank%)已经超过53%,排名(Rank)值已经小于1M.
当然我知道,这和数以T计的计算能力相比,只是沧海一粟.但是我为我和我家人的贡献感到自豪.
我们目前加入了SETI@Home,SETI@Home Beta,Rosetta@Home,Climate Prediction,SIMAP这几个项目,为天文计算,医药研究,大气科学,和生物科学研究做贡献.


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